Abstract:
Objective To predict the mosquito density in 2019 by using the seasonal trend model of the moving average method based on the mosquito density in Nanjing from 2015 to 2018 to guide mosquito-borne diseases and mosquito control.
Methods Excel software was used to fit the seasonal trend of the mosquito density in Nanjing during the first half of 2015-2018 on the basis of the regression equation to predict the mosquito density in 2019.
Results The regression equation after fitting was: y=0.0091x+ 0.5207, and the relative error of the model was -0.04%.
Conclusion In the 9th and 21st half months of 2019 (that is, from late April to late October), the measured and predicted values are close to each other, and both are lower than the warning value. The model fitting effect is better. This method has guiding significance for the formulation of patriotic health campaign policies and the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases.
Key words:
Mosquito density,
Moving average method,
Seasonal trend model,
Forecast and warning
Yanqun Sun, Hongmin Sun, Shougang Zhang, Tao Ma, Luoju Feng, Chong Wang, Moyuan Lu, Yan Zhang, Junjun Wang, Qixin Wu, Chengguo Li. Forecasting and early warning of mosquito density in Nanjing by using the seasonal trend model of moving average[J]. Chinese Journal of Hygiene Rescue(Electronic Edition), 2021, 07(01): 13-17.